Scotland’s Corona Virus Shame.

This is a basic analysis of the Scottish Governments own figures of the Corona Virus ‘crisis’ to the end of April 2020. The numbers they have produced are a damning critique on the their response and policy implementations.

The SARS-CoV2 virus has swept it’s way across the world from its humble nascence in Wuhan at the beginning of the year. It was advertised as the Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse incarnate.

Professor Ferguson of Imperial College London, prophesied millions of deaths from the ‘novel’ virus. No world saving vaccines could be developed in time to save humanity from imminent destruction.

What was then proposed was essentially the end of civilization as we know it.

Project ‘Lockdown’ was conceived on the basis of 15,000 lines of undocumented computer code by a man who has cried wolf on many previous occasions.

No longer is homo sapiens ‘πολιτικὸν ζῷον’. Social interaction is now ‘social distancing’. The inalienable right to walk the earth has been supplanted by a diktat to ‘stay in your house’, if indeed you have one to stay in. Democracy has been cancelled until further notice. Please pay by card ‘if you can’. Many cannot. You may need an ‘immunity passport’ to go to work. Project 2020 claim it is a ‘basic human right to prove your identity’. I still can’t get my head around that one.

Now Western governments have yet another ‘fight’ against an unseen enemy that can only be won by removing citizens rights, hard won by our forefathers, for ‘our own protection’. In fact every one of us is now part of the hidden enemy with the power to bring society to it’s knees, merely by being alive.

What sickens me most is the exhortations to ‘Protect our NHS’.

Watch the telly for twenty minutes and see the number of appeals to give money, which you can’t earn because your are stuck in your house, to the NHS. Bang a pot or draw a rainbow and stick in your window to celebrate how great a job they are doing to protect us from this evil virus.

It has never been made plain exactly what the NHS needs protection from unless you count cuts to funding over the last 10 years. To be blunt. Protecting the NHS is a government problem and it should not have to rely on charity from the public. We have already paid taxes to fund it. Not to see the ‘frontline’ workers dancing around a handbag.

The real numbers behind SARS-COV2

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford tweeted: “What @BorisJohnson announced tonight applies in England. It does not apply in the devolved nations where all three nations will continue with the central message of stay home to support the NHS and to save lives.”

10th May 2020

I live in Scotland. It’s a small country with a population of 5.5 million or so. I write about Scotland in particular, not because I don’t care about the rest of the world, but because when I step out of the door that is where I am.

Scotland’s age demographics

These numbers are important when we look at the actual severity of COVID19 and the age groups it mostly affects. As we will see, the Scottish Government has completely failed to understand the disease and has lied over and over again to justify it’s policy of ‘lockdown’.

Scotland – Historical Deaths Rate Comparison

There is no doubt that April 2020 saw significant rates of death above average in Scotland. The table below shows the figures from 216 – 2019.

If we look at the Scottish Government’s own figures for April 2020 we can see the excess deaths quite clearly.

Time PeriodDeaths
All Deaths 202024,960
Average Deaths 2016 – 2019 Jan – Feb20,655
All Deaths April 20207,403
Average deaths April 2016 – 20194,586

A bit of children’s arithmetic gives a ball park figure (7,403 – 4,586) of 2,817 which we could attribute to COVID19. The Scottish Government figure is 2,795 for COVID19 deaths.

I think we can agree that the numbers closely match. The standard deviation for historical total deaths for the period January to April is 1,273. The Scottish Government figure for Non-COVID19 deaths in 2020 is 22,165. Roughly 1 SD away from the average of 20,655.

The following chart shows all deaths recorded in Scotland in 2020. The proportion of COVID19 related deaths are shown in orange. To state the blindingly obvious. The older you get, the greater the chance you have of dying. COVID19 deaths follow this pattern.

Let’s take the Scottish Government figures and condense them into one table that shows the actual numbers for the months Jan – April 2020.

These numbers show clearly, the damning incompetence of the Scottish Government’s response to a virus that is effectively harmless to the vast percentage of the population.

  • Over 90% of COVID19 related deaths are in the age range 65 plus. 41% were in the over 85 years age group.
  • Out of the total of 2,795 deaths, 2,097 have been in an age group of 75 and above.
  • 75% of all COVID19 related deaths are in the +75 years age group.
  • 4,997,455 Scots have been locked down by Government diktat with almost ZERO probability of dying from the disease.
  • Even in the susceptible age groups, you have less than 0.5% chance of dying from the disease based on population totals.
  • 1,195 of the 2,795 deaths were in Care Homes. 43%
  • Deaths in the working population age group were 263
  • 4,997,455 Scots have been locked down by Government diktat with almost ZERO probability of dying from the disease.

The abject failure of the Scottish Government ‘Lockdown’ policy

The criminal policy failures in Scotland are shown in the following graph from the governments own figures.

Even the most imbecilic nincompoop could see that on week 13 of 2020 something was going seriously wrong in Care Homes throughout Scotland.

The number of deaths had risen from the previous week by some 181 (the Mean of weeks 1 through 12 was 282 per week)

The numbers here are quite literally, shocking. How could a government know, as early as week 13, that the number of deaths in care Homes had ballooned to such an excess?

The real Corona crisis has been in our elderly population over the age of 85 and in care Homes.

There is not a shred of evidence in the numbers to warrant a ‘lockdown’ of the whole of Scottish society or for the absolute carnage this will cause to the Scottish economy for years to come.

The Scottish Government has failed utterly and completely to understand what has and is happening to the elderly in our society and has through stupidity, fear or just sheer pig pigheadedness, implemented policies which have not helped those most vulnerable to a ‘virus’ outbreak.

In fact, looking at the number of Non-COVID19 deaths in care homes, there was a quantum leap from an average of ~282 to 393 in week 13.

The question must be asked if it was the ‘lockdown’ policy which contributed to this.

How did this happen?

Professor Ferguson of Imperial College must shoulder most of the blame for the outrageous over reaction by our Government. Without a total ‘lockdown’, he prophesied 500,000 deaths in the UK based on the virus having an R0 of 2.4.

Remarkably, given his record of dire predictions which all came to nought, Governments listened to him.

Money and resources were directed to where they would not be needed. The NHS Louisa Jordan ‘field’ hospital at the SEC in Glasgow rushed to completion may well be waiting for it’s first patient. It is a prime example of similar follies that were created in England.

Their was panic and fear that the NHS would not be able to cope with a rush of critical patients on death’s doorstep. Not enough ventilators. Not enough face-masks. Not enough test kits. In the end there hasn’t been enough patients!

The Main Stream Media hyped the situation out of all proportion. Never have I seen so many many flies swarming around one small pot of faeces.

Yet still our ‘leaders’ wade about aimlessly in a crisis of their own making. Like Ian Blackford continually repeating the same inane mantra. ‘Stay at home. Protect our NHS’. At least our NHS ‘heroes’ still have a job to go to and a wage packet to look forward to.

Let’s see what happens in May and June. As Hegel said, ‘The owl of Minerva spreads it’s wings only with the falling of dusk.’

All the data used for this quick analysis can be found at:

The National Records of Scotland

Statistics.gov.scot

Data was ‘munged’ in Python and Libre Calc was used for the tables and charts.

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